Subjects: Mechanics >> Applied Mechanics submitted time 2023-03-20 Cooperative journals: 《应用力学学报》
Abstract： Tectonic fault is one of the main geohaards that occur to long-distance oil and gas pipelines.Large longitudinal strain induced by active fault will lead to pipeline rupture failure.The existing deterministic analysis methods based on strain design are relatively conservative and cannot take into accountthe multiple uncertainties of pipeline structure , circumferential soil or seismic fault displacement. There-fore , this paper proposes a reliability analysis method which takes into account the pipeline geometry , tube-soil interaction , and the uncertainty of fault displacement. Using the pipeline design strain database , theneural network prediction model between the pipeline design strain and the influencing parameters was es-tablished , and then the limit state equation based on the strain was obtained. Through Monte-Carlo simula-tion , the conditional failure probability of pipelines with uncertain parameters such as pipe size parameter ,pipe soil action parameter and intermal pressure under specific fault displacement was calculated. Basedon the probabilistic risk analysis process of fault displacement ( PFDHA ) , the uncertainty of fault displace-ment was considered , and the occurrence probability of each fault displacement during different service pe-riods was obtained. Combined with the obtained failure probability of pipeline conditions , the total failureprobability of pipeline in this service period can be obtained based on the calculation formula of total prob-ability. 'This paper takes the intersection site between XinYueZhe X80 pipeline and Bo -AF located inXinjiang an example to carry out the analysis , and the failure probability of the pipeline section in ten,twenty , thity years of service is obtained.'The results show that the pipeline will meet the target reliabilityrequirements laid down by CSA 7662 over next twenty years. However , if the service life is more thantwenty years,the failure probability of the pipeline will exceed the maximum allowable failure probability ,and the pipeline section at the crossing shall be eauipped with seismic fortification.
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