Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： The arid region of Northwest China is one of the driest regions in the world and is characterized with severe water scarcity.Water shortage is the most critical natural factor limiting the high-quality economic and social development and ecological security in the arid region of Northwest China. Based on the long-term monitoring data from the field stations of Chinese Academy of Sciences, observation data of meteorological stations, water resources bulletin and the remote sensing data, this study systematically analyzes the basic characteristics of water resources and ecological environment in the arid region of Northwest China, assesses the changing trends of hydrological elements, water resources, and ecological environment. Besides, this study analyzes the changes of water resources carrying capacity in terms of water use structure and water resources utilization efficiency, and puts forward some suggestions on sustainable water resources utilization and ecological and environmental protection. The results show that the temperature in the arid region of Northwest China has increased at a rate of 0.32℃/decade and precipitation has increased at a rate of 9.32 mm/decade. The glaciers are shrinking at accelerating rate and the runoff supplied by glacier/snow meltwater has increased. The amount of water resources has increased by about 11 billion m3 since the mid-1990s. In the past decade, water use efficiency has been improved, water-saving irrigation area has been expanded, and agricultural water production efficiency has been improved due to water conservation and utilization measures. Water environment capacity has been increased, water carrying capacity has been enhanced, surface water area has been expanded, and the ecosystem condition has improved. However, water resources problems are still prominent in the arid region of Northwest China, the intensity of extreme climate and hydrological events has increased, and the ecological environment is still fragile. In the future, it is necessary to further explore the water resources potential of this region, improve the water resources management, and enhance ecological protection and restoration efforts for better adaptation to the possible risks of climate change, so as to provide scientific and technological support for promoting the construction of the “Green Silk Road” and realizing high-quality regional economic and social development.
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Other Disciplines of Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences submitted time 2021-03-02 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：结合博斯腾湖1960—2018年水位、出入湖径流以及气象站点实测资料，采用集合经验模态分解（Ensem⁃ble Empirical Mode Decomposition，EEMD）、水量平衡和气候弹性方法，对近60 a博斯腾湖水位变化及其影响因素进行了详细分析。结果表明：（1）1960—2018年博斯腾湖水位总体呈下降态势，具体表现为“下降-上升-下降-上升”四个阶段。（2）在年际尺度上水位存在准3~4 a、准8~9 a的周期性振荡，而年代际尺度上表现出准29~30 a和准33~34 a的周期性变化。（3）1960—2018年降水、气温和潜在蒸散发对开都河、黄水沟和焉耆径流的累积贡献率分别达85.1%、42.1%和23.8%，而下垫面、其他气象变量和人为等因素累积对径流的贡献率分别约为14.9%、57.9%和76.2%。（4）对不同阶段博斯腾湖水位变化原因分析：1960—1987年水位急剧下降的主要原因同入湖径流减少和湖面蒸发量大有关；气温升高和降水量增加导致入湖水量增加是1988—2002年水位显著升高的主要原因；入湖径流减少和出湖水量增多，导致2003—2014年水位显著下降；博斯腾湖入湖水量的显著增加及对出湖水量的严格控制是2015—2018年水位明显上升的主要原因。
Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2020-01-06 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》
Abstract：定量评估水资源开发潜力对掌握区域水资源开发现状、提高水资源利用率具有重要意义。通过选取水资源利用率、灌溉率、地表水控制率、人均占有水量、重复利用率、生活用水定额、供水量模数、生态环境用水率等8个重要指标，借助模糊综合评价模型对中亚五国水资源开发潜力进行定量分析。结果表明：中亚地区整体水资源开发利用处于中级阶段，开发潜力综合评分值为0.502 7，表明开发潜力较大。其中，哈萨克斯坦水资源综合评分值最高，为0.712 4，有很大的开发潜力，但要注意摒弃不合理的水资源利用方式；吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦综合评分值分别为0.591 1、0.488 7，有较大的开发潜力，但应注意由广度开发逐渐向深度开发转变。下游国家土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦处于开发利用的高级阶段，综合评分值分别为0.352 6、0.315 0，水资源开发潜力较小。今后应注意发展节水型经济，注重水资源综合管理。
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