Subjects: Geosciences >> Geography submitted time 2024-03-01 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： The annual and monthly precipitation data from five hydrological stations in the Shule River Basinfrom 1956 to 2020, were analyzed using linear tendency, sliding average, cumulative anomaly, Mann- Kendallmutation test, wavelet analysis, and other methods. The interannual variation process for precipitation in theShule River Basin and its variation characteristics, such as mutability, trend, periodicity, persistence,heterogeneity, and concentration, were evaluated. The results show that the annual precipitation at each station inthe Shule River Basin showed different increasing trends, and the precipitation at each station showed differentmutation characteristics. Over the previous 60 years, precipitation in the entire basin presents a relatively unevendistribution on the time scale, and the precipitation in the upstream area is more than that in the downstream.Specifically, the annual precipitation at Changmabao and Dangchengwan stations showed obvious increasingtrends, while the increasing trend at Panjiazhuang station and Shuangtabao and Danghe reservoir stations was notobvious. The analysis indicates that precipitation in the basin will continue to show an increasing trend in thecoming period.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Atmospheric Sciences submitted time 2023-08-25 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract： The linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the temporaland spatial variation of temperature in Dunhuang, Guazhou, and Yumen stations in the Shule River Basin from1951 to 2020. The results revealed that (1) all stations experienced a significant upward trend in averagetemperature, with tendency rates of 0.244 °C·(10a)−1 (P<0.05) for Dunhuang station, 0.209 °C·(10a)−1 (P<0.05)for Guazhou station, and 0.195 ° C · (10a) − 1 (P<0.05) for Yumen station. (2) Dunhuang and Yumen stationsexhibited a significant upward trend in average temperature across all seasons, except for a nonsignificant upwardtrend in summer. (3) the mutation years for average temperature at Dunhuang, Guazhou, and Yumen stations were1998, 1997, and 1995, respectively, with the first main cycles being 58 a, 30 a, and 13 a, respectively. (4) andannual and seasonal average temperatures gradually increased from east to west in the Shule River Basin, withdecreasing nonuniformity coefficients and concentration degrees also observed.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Hydrology submitted time 2022-12-20 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：
A quantitative analysis of runoff variation characteristics is the basis for finding out its impact mechanism, and it is also an important basis for accurately evaluating water resources. This study used eight annual distribution indexes, such as the Gini coefficient and Lorentz asymmetry coefficient, combined with the M-K test、R/S analysis, and other mathematical statistics methods, to comprehensively analyze the process of the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River from the annual and interannual levels. The results showed that the following: (1) during the year, a unimodal distribution was shown, which was mainly concentrated in the flood season concentration degree (D), inhomogeneous coefficient (Cv), Gini coefficient (GI), relative change range (Cm) decreased respectively at the rate of - 1.053 · (10a)- 1 , - 0.015 · (10a)- 1 , - 0.009 · (10a)- 1 ,- 0.643 · (10a)- 1 , complete adjustment coefficient (Cr), Lorentz asymmetry coefficient (S), concentration period (Cn) all decreased at the rate of -0.006·(10a)-1 . The distribution tended to be uniform gradually according to the changing trend of its characteristic index during the year. (2) The annual runoff showed an overall increasing trend, but an abrupt change occurred in 1997, and the average annual runoff afterward increased by 59% compared before the change. (3) The runoff generally showed an upward trend in all four seasons, among which the trend rate was the greatest in the summer and the smallest in the winter. After the abrupt change in the 1990s, the average runoff increased significantly compared to before the abrupt change, and the change range was in the following order: autumn (76%) > winter (74%) > summer (58%) > spring (45%). (4) The annual and seasonal runoff in the upper reaches of the Shule River had multiple time characteristic scale periods, and the first major cycle were both 56 years. (5) According to the predicted runoff from 2022 to 2024, it was found that the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River will continue to increase in the next three years. These results provided a scientific basis for accurately grasping the runoff variation laws and characteristics of the upper reaches of the Shule River and had certain guiding significance for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in the Shule River Basin and the study of the runoff variation laws in inland river basins.
Subjects: Geosciences >> Hydrology submitted time 2020-06-12 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区地理》
Abstract： 通过对流域径流变化特征研究，为水资源高效管理、科学调配和综合利用提供参考依据。选取疏勒河干流昌马堡、潘家庄和双塔堡水库站多年实测月、年天然径流作为数据资料，利用线性倾向、Mann-Kendall等方法，研究了干流径流量年、年内、年际、季节变化和突变特征。结果表明：1956—2016年干流年径流呈现昌马堡站（1.075×108 m3•（10a）-1）>双塔堡水库站（0.253×108 m3•（10a）-1）>潘家庄站（0.126×108 m3•（10a）-1）的线性倾向率，且呈现增加变化趋势；径流年内分配极不均匀，径流主要集中于5~9月份，占年径流量的50%以上；径流年际变化均低于和高于多年平均值分别在70—90年代和21世纪00—01年代；径流不同站点和不同年代平均径流距平呈现差异性季节变化特征，夏季径流量增加对各站点年径流量影响最大；径流突变时间和特征因不同站点呈现不同变化特征，3个水文站突变点分别为1998年、2012年和2006年。研究结果对促进区域水资源综合管理与科学调配，指导区域中长期水资源综合规划与社会经济发展具有重要实际参考借鉴意义。
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Basic Disciplines of Environmental Science and Technology submitted time 2020-04-26 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》
Abstract：选取疏勒河干流3个水文站1956—2016年逐月、逐年降水数据作为基础资料，采用线性倾向、累积距平、滑动平均、MannKendall突变检验等方法，分析疏勒河干流降水量年变化、年内变化、年代际变化、季节变化和突变特征。结果表明：疏勒河干流年降水量呈现不同程度增加趋势，年降水量倾向率排序表现为：昌马堡站5.47 mm·（10a）-1>双塔堡水库站1.454 mm·（10a）-1>潘家庄站0.866 mm·（10a）-1；降水量年内分配极不均匀，主要集中于5—8月，占年降水量的65%以上；降水量年代际呈现20世纪60年代和90年代降水量均低于多年平均值，20世纪70年代和21世纪10年代降水量均高于多年平均值；降水量季节变化不同站点呈现不同变化特征，昌马堡站、潘家庄站和双塔堡水库站分别是夏季、秋季和秋季降水对降水量贡献最大，同时不同季节不同年代平均降水量距平呈现不同变化特征；降水量突变年在不同季节呈现不同突变特征和不同突变时间，昌马堡站、潘家庄站和双塔堡水库站年平均降水量突变点分别为1964年和2001年、1988年和1987年。
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