基于蒙特卡罗仿真的湖库水质预测及富营养化风险评估方法

Subjects: Computer Science >> Integration Theory of Computer Science submitted time 2019-01-03 Cooperative journals: 《计算机应用研究》

王小艺 周宇琴 赵峙尧 王立 许继平 于家斌

Abstract： Water quality prediction and eutrophication analysis of lakes are important technical means of water pollution prevention and control. However, the existing water quality prediction research is usually in a form of single-valued prediction, and analyze eutrophication status on this basis, which has a certain degree of haphazard and uncertainty. Combining with the water quality kinetic model, proposed a water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Based on the prior distribution of water quality index and model parameters of water quality kinetic model, used Monte Carlo simulation to predict the evolution of water quality index to obtain the probability distribution of water quality indicators in future time and achieve water quality prediction. Further, constructed an integrated eutrophication status index. Combining with the predicted results of water quality indexes, calculated the probability distribution of comprehensive nutritional status index and the probability of different nutritional status to assess the eutrophication risk. The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the water quality and analyze eutrophication status, with more comprehensive consideration and accuracy. Meanwhile, it overcomes the haphazard brought by single-valued prediction result.

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