Subjects: Statistics >> Social Statistics submitted time 2024-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： In 2023, China’s economy maintained a recovery trend after the epidemic. However, the economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development, and it is expected that China’s economy will grow steadily and rapidly in 2024. This study introduces a comprehensive approach to forecasting annual GDP growth, integrating input-output models, econometric models, prosperity analysis, expert insights, and scenario analysis. Reviewing China’s economic performance in 2023 and the prevailing global and domestic conditions, it is projected that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 5.3% in 2024. Based on this analysis, several policy recommendations are suggested, namely, intensifying macro-control policies for both cyclical and counter-cyclical phases; elevating the industrial chain’s modernization to enhance its resilience and competitiveness; and providing steady support to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Faced with the complex domestic and international environment, the Chinese government took various measures to coordinate epidemic control with economic and social development, earning recovered growth of the economy in 2021. In 2022, China's economic development will be facing greater uncertainty. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth is proposed. Based on the review and analysis of China's economic development in 2021, as well as the current domestic and international situation, China's economic growth rate is predicted to revert to normal level in 2022, with an annual growth rate of about 5.5%. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including implementing science-based measures in epidemic prevention and control, strengthening the cross-cycle policy adjustment, boosting consumption more vigorously, achieving the goal of "double carbon" scientifically and flexibly, and accelerating the development of digital economy and industrial digitization.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： China’s economic growth slowed down in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding measures. There are great uncertainties in China’s economic development in 2023. It is expected that China’s medium and long-term economic growth rate will show a wavy downward trend. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, this study proposes a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth. Through analysis of China’s economic growth in 2022 and the current situation worldwide, China’s economic growth rate is predicted to be about 6.0% in 2023, reverting to the normal level. The policy recommendations are further put forward based on the analysis, including strengthening the adjustment of macro-policy, implementing proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, boosting domestic consumption, increasing employment and promoting investment, striving to stabilize the macro-economic market, preventing and defusing risks in major fields, and leveraging China’s advantages in the global industrial chain.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract： Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China’s economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China’s medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China’s economic development in 2020 and forecasts China’s economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that China’s economy will achieve a restorative growth with an annual growth rate of about 8.5% in 2021. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including promoting domestic consumption, stabilizing economic growth and development, building a science and technology innovation-oriented country, as well as accelerating the transformation of industrial structure.
Subjects: Other Disciplines >> Synthetic discipline submitted time 2018-07-26 Cooperative journals: 《中国科学院院刊》
Abstract：随着数字化浪潮的涌现，数字经济必将对中国的经济产生更为深远的影响，表现在不仅将促进国内生产总值（GDP）更快速的增长，还将提升生产率、消费结构转型、优化投资结构、提升企业出口规模、提高人力资本质量，并引领新型智慧城市的发展。文章构建了非竞争型就业投入占用产出模型，采用支出法GDP（即最终支出的3个方面：消费、资本形成总额和出口总额）核算了我国数字经济的经济规模，最终估计3类支出所形成的经济规模分别对就业的影响效应。研究发现：（1）ICT（信息和通信技术）产业与传统产业的融合能够带动经济规模的扩张，特别是网络消费的增长，以此产生的消费导向型就业效应正在逐步扩大（使得非农就业占全部就业人数比例从2014年的15.2%增长到2016年的20.2%），其中未来应特别关注的发展领域应聚焦在医疗健康、文化娱乐和交通通讯。（2）数字经济对技术密集型制造业的就业影响强于劳动密集型和资本密集型，同时在生产型服务业中也表现出了强有力的就业影响效应，并促使我国产业经济从劳动密集型向技术密集型的转型。（3）中国的数字化转型将带来生产率的提升和创新的提速，并促进职业技能的培养，促使人力资本从低成本优势向职业技能优势转型，从而培养更高技能的劳动力队伍。
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