Subjects: Geosciences >> Space Physics submitted time 2016-04-22
Abstract： The planetary three-hour-range Kp index is widely used in space weather services. Due to the two weeks' time delay of the release of Kp index, the real-time estimation of the Kp index becomes essential for space weather forecasting organizations. In this paper, an improved algorithm for real-time Kp estimation on the basis of Takahashi's procedure was developed. The new algorithm improved the accuracy of Kp estimation by distinguishing the day-to-day variations of geomagnetic field's regular variation and taking account of both the diurnal and seasonal variations of magnetic disturbance. The statistical result shows that the Prediction Efficiency (PE) increased from 0.77 to 0.84 using Fredericksburg's data, from 0.88 to 0.92 using the nine stations network's data. Using the data from Beijing Ming Tombs observatory (BMT) from 2000 to 2006, the PE increased from 0.70 to 0.80 compared with the Takahashi procedure. The error of the estimations differs from universal time, season and the scale of magnetic disturbance. The RMS error reached maximum for Kp=7. Analysis of Kp using the SuperMAG indices indicated that the asymmetric distribution of Kp stations affects the Kp nowcast performance.
Peer Review Status:
Awaiting Review
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