Subjects: Management Science >> Science ology and Management Subjects: Information Science and Systems Science >> Methodology of System Engineering Subjects: Statistics >> Economic Statistics submitted time 2024-06-12
Abstract： Social economy and population development are inseparable. Population imbalance originates from the incoordination of economic and social development, and it will also hinder the development of economy and society. Traditional methods of studying this issue often separate the causal relationship between the two, usually limited to the induction of macro data, ignoring the internal mechanism behind residents’ decision-making. Due to the inability to deduce the differences in decision-making faced by heterogeneous residents under different policy environments, it is impossible to accurately quantify policy results. In order to make up for the above shortcomings, this paper uses the principle of microeconomics utility maximization as the basis, combined with the concept of real marriage and childbirth, and uses the idea of intelligent micro-element model to construct a simulation system of residents’ economy and marriage and childbirth decision. The residents in this system are complex and adaptive. This paper first divides the resident utility function into three parts: economic utility, spouse utility and offspring utility. Under the condition of multi-class constraints, through optimization Utility, simulating the decision-making of heterogeneous residents such as different age groups, wealth endowments, wage rates, family status and expectations. Subsequently, the realistic rationality of the system’s deduction is verified at the micro and macro levels. Since the system can simulate and deduce the decisions and interactions of residents consistent with reality, it can not only observe the structural phenomena emerging from micro to macro through this system, but also explain from micro factors to macro causality, and can measure the effect of policies, making up for the shortcomings of traditional economic models and providing a new paradigm for economic research in the era of big data.
Peer Review Status:
Awaiting Review
Subjects: Information Science and Systems Science >> Methodology of System Engineering Subjects: Mathematics >> Applied Mathematics submitted time 2022-10-30
Abstract： Multifactor impact analysis is an important part of economic quantitative analysis, and there are many methods. Among them, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is widely used in the application of input-output techniques. In this paper, the defects of SDA are explained in depth, and the new multifactor and multi-order impact analysis (MMIA) technique is fully described. Firstly, the basic concepts of multifactor impact analysis and multifactor-multi-order impact analysis are defined. Secondly, the relationship between multifactor- multi-order impact analysis and Taylor series is clarified. Thirdly, the concepts and techniques of forward analysis and reverse analysis are proposed. Finally, several applications of MMIA under the input-output techniques framework are briefly described.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
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