Subjects: Mathematics >> Modeling and Simulation Subjects: Biology >> Biomathematics submitted time 2020-02-25
Abstract： Here we report the analysis of epidemic data from Jan. 20th to Feb. 16th, 2020 in 24 provinces in China, whose total infected cases are larger than 100 till 02/16/2020, as well as 16 cities in Hubei province (the most severely affected area) except Shennongjia, based on dynamical models and automatical algorithms for parameter optimization. We forecast the COVID-19 epidemics in most provinces in China will end up soon before February 29th, while those for Hubei province (except Wuhan city) will be closed by the middle of March. The epidemic in Wuhan will continue to the beginning of April. And we suggest further close attentions should be paid to six provides, including Heilongjiang, Hebei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Guizhou and Sichuan, as well as six different cities, including Wuhan, Jingzhou, Ezhou, Suizhou, Tianmen and Enshi, in Hubei province. Moreover, it is hinted that clustering infection might be happened in Tianjin, Hebei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hainan and Guangxi provides, and many cities inside Hubei province during the spreading of COVID-19, which needs further validation by epidemiological investigations in the future.
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