Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： Multiple dated outcomes in intertemporal choice involves the tradeoff of two or more outcomes at multiple time points, which has become the focus of research on intertemporal choice. According to the characteristics of the multiple dated intertemporal choice, this paper reviews the decision effects of multi-dated outcome on intertemporal choice, including: hidden zero effect, symbolic effect, extra dated money effect, front-end amount effect and sequence effect from the two-outcome and the sequence outcomes. In addition, the theoretical models such as the sequence model and the trade-off model to explain the above decision effects are explained. Finally, the paper points out the future research direction: the follow-up research should strengthen the discussion on the field of mixed gain-loss intertemporal choice, and further explore the mechanism of multiple dated intertemporal choice process by using the decision-making process tracking technology.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： Probability is an important indicator reflecting risk and uncertainty. Existing research focuses on how an individual evaluates the characteristics, antecedents, and underlying mechanisms of static probability. However, in reality, probability estimation is dynamic and therefore has a trend effect, which in turn influences decision-making. This paper describes two manifestations of the trend effect of probability estimation: (1) the tendency of the revised probability estimation—namely, the increased or decreased trend effect of probability estimation changing from one time point to another; and (2) the single-bound probability—namely, the estimated expression being higher or lower than the upper or lower bound of a certain probability interval. In addition, we indicate the trend effect’s impact on an individual’s judgments, decision-making behaviors, and irrational decision deviations. Based on the theoretical perspective of psychological momentum, we propose an integrated model to explore the internal mechanism of probability estimation’s trend effect. The model reveals probability estimation’s trend effect induces psychological momentum through initial triggering of psychological momentum-related stimuli, release of the catalysis via psychological simulating of the future trend, and formation of the psychological momentum perception experience. Also it illustrates the two major components of the perception experience of psychological momentum (perceived quality and perceived velocity). Further, the model includes analyses of the three conditions affecting the generated degree of psychological momentum (strength, frequency, and continuity) and the dynamic between psychological momentum and decision-making behavior. Future research can focus on three areas. (1) Probability estimation’s trend effect when there are multiple information sources. Most existing research emphasizes unilateral information sources when the direction of probability estimation’s trend effect is relatively clear. But there are often multiple sources of information in the real world; for example, if two experts estimate the probability of a future event at the same time, more complicated situations, including the recency effect and framing effect, need further exploration. (2) The interaction between dynamic trend effect and static probability estimation. Static probability research has shown individuals often overestimate the occurrence of low probability events and underestimate the occurrence of medium and high probability events. Thus, are the trend effects of dynamic probability estimation different for the different probability risks? Further, for the interval value of extremely low probability, whether adopting the unilateral probability statement can effectively suppress the deviation of the overestimation of the small probability? (3) The trend effect of revised probability estimation in risk communication. Probability estimation’s trend effect plays an essential role in risk communication. The trend effect produced by the revised probability estimation or unilateral probability expression from the communicating party affects the other party’s understanding and judgment. Compared with those of the narrow interval, what are the characteristics of the wide probability interval communicated? Will the difference between the roles of the two communicating parties affect the probability estimation? All these issues need further exploration.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： Environmental issues are currently of particular concern in the world. Thus, it is important to understand the processes that contribute to prudent long-term choices regarding the environment. To this end, it is important to study environmental intertemporal choice, especially the improvement of foresight in environmental time discounting. The present research combined questionnaire-based, lab-based and field studies to investigate whether “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” decreased time discounting in environmental intertemporal choice. Study 1 probed the link between pregnancy and environmental intertemporal choice. Study 2 aimed to replicate the results from Study 1 by controlling for the confounding variables of the physiological state of pregnancy in a lab experiment. In Study 3, a priming paradigm was developed to test this hypothesis. Participants were instructed to indicate their degree of support for specific environmental policies after the benefits of the policy were described. The test materials were the same in the experimental and control groups with the exception that an additional phrase was included in the experimental condition: “To leave our children with blue sky, green earth, clear water, and a beautiful home”. Building on Study 3, Study 4 employed a similar nudge-like intervention to investigate the effects of “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” on the extent to which participants support a federal environmental policy and donation incentive for charitable organizations. Study 1 indicated that pregnancy increased long-term thought in environmental intertemporal choice and decreased the temporal discounting rate through comparisons between pregnant and non-pregnant participants. Moreover, long-term thinking mediated the effect of pregnancy on the discounting rate in environmental intertemporal choice. Study 2 replicated the results of Study 1 regarding the links between the psychological priming of pregnancy and the discount rate in environmental intertemporal choice. The first two studies investigated whether natural pregnancy influenced the time discounting rate in environmental intertemporal choice. Based on these results, Study 3 tested the intervention hypothesis, which suggests that the subtle priming associated with the characteristics of pregnancy would influence the degree of support for long-term environmental policies. The results demonstrated that a simple prime that referred to “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” increased long-term thinking in intertemporal choice. Importantly, we produced similar nudging effects in Study 4 and showed that “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” increased the donation incentive towards a charity that aimed to improve the environment of China. The results from our four studies provide consistent evidence that “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” decreased myopic behaviour in environmental intertemporal choice. These results are crucial for the design of nudge interventions that improve the long-term interests of both individuals and collectives while persevering the freedom of individual choice. Furthermore, this research also sheds light on the theoretical attributions to underlying intertemporal models and the effects of the physiological state of pregnancy on choice.
Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2020-06-23
Abstract： According to the positive temporal discounting theory and our relevant observations, when faced with future losses, people should, and do, prefer delayed negative events (e.g., deferring paying taxes, debts, or tickets), which can lead to substantial individual and societal costs. However, a counterexample has been identified and it appears to depart from the prediction of positive temporal discounting when faced with negative events. This study proposed and investigated the novel free from care account for the reverse preference. Results of five laboratory and field studies showed that students preferred an immediate negative event (i.e., an English oral exam) when “something tying one up”was imposed, in which coping with a distraction induced by such a situation could play a mediating role. In particular, the addition of“something tying one up” was found to be an effective behavioral nudge in terms of reliability and reproducibility and should be simple for potential users to follow. Specifically, the association between being tied up and undergoing a negative event immediately in the present studies mirrored the association between outgroup threat and intergroup cooperation in the Robbers Cave experiment.
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