Analysis of water balance change and influencing factors in Issyk-Kul Lake in recent 60 years

Subjects: Geosciences >> Hydrology submitted time 2022-12-20 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》

王晓飞 黄 粤 刘 铁 李均力 王 正 昝婵娟 段永超

Abstract：

Based on the satellite data, the water level and area information of Lake Issyk-Kul was extracted, and the water volume was reconstruct; combined with CRU meteorological data from 1960-2020, the temperature and precipitation observation data from 1960- 2000 at the Cholpon- Ata meteorological station and the water volume observation data into the lake, the lake water balance model was established to analyze the changing characteristics of each element of the water balance and to explore its influencing factors. The results indicated that: (1) Since 1960, the water volume of Issyk-Kul Lake has undergone a process of continuous decrease and fluctuating increase, with 1998 being the inflection point of the change; from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, the water volume into the lake decreased continuously mainly due to the influence of irrigation diversions, and then turned to an increasing trend after 1986 with the decrease of irrigation water and the increase of precipitation and glacial meltwater; precipitation in the lake area increased at a rate of 9.1 mm·(10a)-1 , and the evapotranspiration tends to increase significantly with increasing temperature and lake area. (2) Before the mid-1980s, Issyk-Kul had a negative water balance in most years, and groundwater continued to recharge the lake; since 1986, the water balance deficit of the lake gradually decreased, and since 1998, the positive balance has been dominated. (3) The interaction of water balance components such as runoff, precipitation and evaporation determines the changes in lake water volume, while climate change in the flow-producing areas and irrigation diversions in irrigation areas indirectly drive the changes in lake water volume by changing runoff; from 1960 to 1986, human activities, mainly irrigation diversions, were the dominant factor driving the changes in Issyk- Kul water volume, with a contribution of 71.6%, and since 1987 the cumulative contribution of climate change factors to changes in lake water volume exceeds 80%.

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水资源约束下的渭干河流域耕地适宜规模

Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Basic Disciplines of Environmental Science and Technology submitted time 2020-06-19 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》

柯映明 沈占锋 白洁 李均力 常存 许泽宇

Abstract：利用遥感、水文、气象、统计年鉴等数据，基于水量平衡原理建立以生态耗水为主要水资源约束条件的耕地适宜规模模型，以渭干河流域为研究对象，估算1990—2017年4期耕地适宜面积并评价其开发潜力。结果表明：① 1990—2017年渭干河流域耕地面积持续增加，其转化来源以灌木林、草地为主。② 流域水源主要来自地表径流与可利用降水，流域耗水以生态耗水为主。③ 来水量、作物种植结构与节水灌溉是影响适宜耕地面积估算的主要因素。④ 1990年耕地达到相对饱和状态；2000年耕地水平不稳定，其扩张影响生态环境的平衡；随着作物种植结构调整与节水灌溉普及，2010、2017年实际耕地面积远小于其当年来水量下适宜耕地面积，未来耕地具有较大开发潜力。

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开都河源区径流变化的气候响应

Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Resource Sciences >> Basic Disciplines of Environmental Science and Technology submitted time 2020-04-26 Cooperative journals: 《干旱区研究》

刘志斌 黄粤 刘铁 包安明 冯先伟 邢伟 段永超 郭晨宇

Abstract：气候变化下的山区径流时空变异特征是干旱区水文水资源研究的热点之一。本研究选择天山南坡开都河流域源区为典型研究区，基于1958—2017年大山口水文站和巴音布鲁克水文站径流数据，及巴音布鲁克气象观测数据，采用TFPWMK趋势检验、小波分析与小波相干等方法分析径流序列的趋势、突变和周期特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：近60 a来，开都河源区径流、降水、气温呈显著增加趋势，并且径流量、降水量与最高气温的增率在加快，而平均气温与最低气温的增率减缓；径流量、降水与平均气温的突变年份集中在20世纪90年代，并且均存在28 a的周期；夏季径流量增加主要受夏季升温的影响，而早春径流量增加主要与冬季降水增加、早春升温有关；在年尺度上，降水是影响开都河径流变化的主要因素，气温主要以积温形式影响着径流的变化；在月尺度上，积温与降水均与径流呈显著正相关关系，且源区上游径流较下游径流对气温变化更为敏感。

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